One time, while I was a student at UWI, I was visiting my maternal grandmother for the first of two Sunday lunches (it was something she indulged me in, as it was ‘our’ thing). I had a very hard time enjoying that sumptuous meal. Mah Mah always knew when something was wrong with me and enquired about my problem. “I’m panicking! There’s this project I can’t finish and I feel as though I won’t get the honours degree I am looking for!” I said. Without looking up from her food, Mah Mah replied, “Boy, if you’ve got time to panic, you have time to act!” That piece of advice is the reason I have been blessed with the platforms provided to me to this day; it literally saved my life. I completed that project that same evening, received the highest mark in the class for it, and achieved First Class Honours down the line. I owe everything to my Mah Mah in this regard.
Her advice has been adopted and continues to be a guiding principle. I hope that it could also be so for you, the reader, as we explore the strong headwinds in the economic and social situation of Barbados. What is most concerning to me is the imminent future of our people, our greatest economic resource, with the widespread and increasingly rapid adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies.
Despite the tone used, I am quite pro-technology. The only reason that humankind has managed to stay atop the food chain for this long is our willingness to innovate technologically and, believe it or not, our adaptability. Gunpowder, armories, marine transportation, electricity, railroads, the combustible motor engine, aeroplanes, jet engines, and scientifically sound medicine and medical procedures—the list is extensive proof of how threatening technologies become, in time, largely and widely useful tools. For every two people who used a horse to plough the fields, there was certainly one who feared being permanently displaced by the invention of the motor vehicle, though the threat wasn’t imminent. History shows that, largely, humankind adapts. Ultimately, the other person learned to drive a tractor in order to be in control of the technology.
Consistently throughout time, humans have been equally victimised by the purveyors, owners, and overseers of technology. No one in the modern world lights a match with a stone unless in the wild. Moreover, no one strolls anywhere nowadays unless they have to. In the first case, we generally lost the critical survival skills in order to gain full use of the technology. In the second case, it led to more frequent occurrences of non-communicable diseases due to a technologically driven sedentary lifestyle. One could argue that we have gained longer lives with generally better quality.
AI, however, presents a new dynamic: a fear of absolute replacement. This fear is only rational because the vast majority of people lack the critical thinking skills necessary for effective integration with technology. Read this carefully: AI is quite straightforward in its general use, which makes it easier to envisage the immediate financial benefits of using it in organisations instead of human labour. Acquisition costs are actually quite low and, if you know what you’re doing, adoption costs are also minimal. This is the core reason why there will be a global fight to justify certain white-collar jobs in the very near future, such as administrative and software developer roles. Businesses will not oppose the use of AI for this reason, especially the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) like Chat-GPT. There are a few of us who still believe that the value from LLMs is still some way off replacing key administrative functions within companies across the globe. I invite them to visit very recent statements by the CEO of global e-commerce platform Shopify on the matter. Last week, he essentially put the company on a hiring freeze for computer programmers, developers, and general admin roles due to how far LLMs have developed.
Essentially, anything that can be automated is already replaceable. The reader may also wish to seriously educate themselves on the concepts of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and AI Agents. The latter are currently the hottest trend in this field. A quick visit to YouTube will reveal that an ever-increasing number of start-ups and small businesses across the globe are preferring the use and programming of AI Agents over the onboarding of a junior-level admin or developer skilled university graduate. And with the advent of “vibe programming” — using AI to do the grunt work of data analytics or building apps — many a graduate from the once-heralded data analytics and software development programmes at institutions around the world pretty much has their days numbered, if they fail to adapt or put serious plans in place to do so. It has made little sense to me when academic institutions challenge the use of AI when, essentially, employers of the future won’t care how well you can write a report. The yardstick is going to be judged by how well you can guide AI in writing that report. Grade students on their ability to take an exam and do presentations now and thank me later.
Mah Mah said that if you have time to think, then you have time to act. AI use is already out of our control. The very near future of our economy will be challenged by our ability to weather our trade partners’ use of this technology. The trade deficits that President Trump is so obsessed with will widen against countries that fall behind in the use of AI, along with tangible technologies such as 3D and CNC printers. Barbados could have a viable manufacturing industry again once we accept the scaling effects of these printers.
There is really no need to fear if we aggressively set about retooling our people in the use of AI. We must treat it in much the same way as we expect people to be able to use Microsoft Word and Excel today. But the period of transition for small economies will still be extreme. Many will be threatened by displacement, which is only logical from the employers’ point of view. I propose that governments in small open economies set about implementing some simple policies. Essentially, programmes must be introduced that allow central government to track the displacement of workers due to the use of AI. I propose that for each displaced worker, the company should be required to continue contributing the full statutory amount that was formerly paid on that worker’s behalf, indefinitely. Companies will still realise massive cost savings and productivity increases with this measure, but the money will be used to finance the retraining and retooling of displaced individuals. This can also form the foundational elements of any Universal Basic Income initiatives.